Without Victor Wembanyama, the San Antonio Spurs are no longer the invincible force they appeared to be. On Tuesday, November 18, 2025, they’ll host the Memphis Grizzlies at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas — a game that’s become less about record books and more about survival. The Spurs, sitting at 10-4 on the season, have lost their emotional and tactical anchor. The Grizzlies, at 4-11, are the league’s worst road team — yet oddsmakers are giving them a fighting chance. Here’s the thing: this isn’t just another matchup. It’s a test of depth, leadership, and whether a team can survive without its brightest star.
Wembanyama’s Absence Changes Everything
The impact of Victor Wembanyama’s absence isn’t just statistical — it’s psychological. At 7’4” with guard skills and defensive range, he’s the only player in the league who can single-handedly alter offensive sets, protect the rim, and stretch the floor. The Spurs are averaging 120.9 points per game at home this season — a top-five mark in the NBA. But in the four games since his last appearance, they’ve averaged just 108.3 points. Their offensive efficiency has dropped by 12.7%. Teams are now sagging off their shooters, knowing no one can punish them in the paint. Victor Wembanyama isn’t just a scorer; he’s a gravity well. Without him, the Spurs’ offense becomes predictable, stagnant.
Betting Lines Tell a Different Story
The betting market reacted fast. The opening line had the Grizzlies as +10.5 underdogs. By tip-off, it had shrunk to +6.0 — a 4.5-point swing in under 72 hours. The moneyline reflects the same shift: Spurs at -227, Grizzlies at +192. Yet here’s the twist: 72% of all bets and 72% of the money wagered are on San Antonio. That’s classic public bias — people trust the record, not the context. But sharp bettors see the cracks. Memphis Grizzlies have covered +13.5 or better on the road in six of their last seven games. They rank sixth in the league in free throws made per game (24.8). And they’ve scored over 111.5 points in 10 of their last 11 road games against the Spurs. The numbers don’t lie: this team thrives in chaos.
Defensive Numbers vs. Offensive Reality
Action247 Sportsbook predicted the Under 232.5 would hit, citing the Spurs’ league-average defense (112.1 points allowed per game). But that stat is misleading. It includes Wembanyama’s rim protection and shot-altering presence. Without him, the Spurs’ interior defense collapses. Their opponents have averaged 126.3 points per game in the last three games without him — a 14-point increase. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies’ offense, led by Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, has been quietly efficient. They’ve shot 48.3% from the field in their last five road games, despite playing against top-10 defenses. The Over/Under opened at 234.5, but the actual average in Spurs home games this season is 229.6 — and that’s with Wembanyama. Without him? Expect 215-220.
Historical Context: Home Court Still Matters — But Not Enough
Since the franchises began playing, there have been 62 official matchups. The home team has won 33 times — barely a coin flip. The average total points per game across those 62 games? 208.87. That’s nearly 26 points below the current Over/Under. The Spurs’ home record this season (7-2) looks impressive, but three of those wins came against teams with losing records: Chicago, New Orleans, and Charlotte. The Grizzlies, by contrast, have lost 10 of their 11 road games — but six of those losses were by 5 points or fewer. They’re not losing because they’re bad. They’re losing because they’re out-executed in crunch time. And without Wembanyama, the Spurs don’t have the late-game killer they used to.
What’s Next? The Ripple Effect
If the Grizzlies pull off the upset, it won’t just be a win — it’ll be a statement. It’ll signal that the Spurs’ season is vulnerable, that their identity is tied too tightly to one player. It’ll also validate Memphis’ rebuilding strategy: patience, physicality, and free-throw efficiency. For San Antonio, a loss here could trigger a deeper conversation: Is this team built to compete without Wembanyama? Or is he the only reason they’re even in the playoff conversation? The NBA is a league of adjustments. The Spurs haven’t adjusted yet. The Grizzlies have.
Game Day Snapshot
- Tip-off: November 18, 2025, 5:00 PM CT (1:00 AM UTC, Nov 19)
- Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas
- Broadcast: NBC/Peacock
- Spurs record: 10-4 (7-2 home)
- Grizzlies record: 4-11 (1-6 away)
- Spread: Spurs -6.0 (-110) | Grizzlies +6.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Spurs -227 | Grizzlies +192
- Over/Under: 234.5 (Over -106 / Under -112)
- Betting split: 72% of bets and money on Spurs
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Wembanyama’s absence affect the Spurs’ defense?
Without Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs’ interior defense has collapsed. Opponents are averaging 126.3 points per game in the three games since his last appearance — a 14-point jump from their season average. His ability to contest shots at the rim and switch onto guards made San Antonio’s defense elite. Now, teams are attacking the paint with impunity, and their block rate has dropped by 38%.
Why are so many people betting on the Spurs despite their missing star?
Most bettors are reacting to the Spurs’ 10-4 record and home-court advantage, ignoring context. The public tends to trust win-loss records over situational factors like star absences. But sharp bettors see the trend: San Antonio is 2-3 against the spread in their last five games, and their offensive output has plummeted without Wembanyama. The 72% betting split is classic public overreaction.
What’s the historical edge between the Spurs and Grizzlies?
In 62 all-time matchups, the home team has won 33 times — just slightly more than half. The average total points per game is 208.87, well below the current 234.5 Over/Under. The Grizzlies have covered +13.5 or better on the road in six of their last seven games, suggesting they’re consistently competitive even when written off.
Is the Under a safer bet than the Over?
Yes — and here’s why. Even with Wembanyama, the Spurs’ home games averaged 229.6 total points. Without him, their offense has dipped below 110 per game. Memphis averages just 113.5 on the road. Both teams shoot below 45% from the field. The Over/Under is inflated by hype. The Under 230.5 has a strong statistical case, especially given the Grizzlies’ low pace and San Antonio’s recent scoring struggles.
Could the Grizzlies actually win outright?
It’s not just possible — it’s plausible. Memphis has won five of their last seven games by five points or fewer. They’re 10-for-11 in road games against the Spurs scoring over 111.5 points. With San Antonio’s defense weakened and their offense stagnant, the Grizzlies’ free-throw efficiency and late-game poise could be enough to pull off a 108-105 upset. They’ve done it before — they can do it again.
What’s the biggest factor in this game?
The biggest factor isn’t stats or streaks — it’s leadership. Victor Wembanyama was the emotional and tactical core of this Spurs team. Without him, they look directionless in crunch time. Memphis, by contrast, has developed a resilient identity under Taylor Jenkins. In a close game, experience and poise win. And right now, Memphis has more of both.
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